Business Forecast

Before starting:

First of all, it is very important to emphasize that the model is automated and takes into account all the months provided as data to make the calculations and must have a minimum time of 3 months to make the predictions to avoid the risk of making incorrect analyses.

Being able to map up to 10 projects to be monitored in the forecast model; if there is a need to map more than this amount, you must contact Pier Cloud.

Step by step execution:

Step 1: In Forecast, access the Business Forecast functionality:

Step 2: The system will open on the main Business Forecast screen.

Click to register the new forecast group

Step 3: Inform the Group Name, Cost Field, Main Key and Main Value

• Group Name: The user decides the reference name for the forecast group.

• Cost Field: You must choose which cost field will be used as the objective of the forecast model. You can use the billing standards of each cloud like those created in the custom fields.

• Main Key: Choose the main key of your forecast group. It can be any billing field. Here you can also use a boost from the organizational map created by the user through our synthetic tagging.

• Main Value: Choose the main values ​​of your key. The system will make a forecast for each selected value.

After saving the forecast group, we can view it on the main Business Forecast screen:

Step 4: To access the Forecast Group, click the "" View Forecast icon.

The system will open in the Forecast Area.

Step 5: Click on to enable the settings options

Forecast setings

• Model confidence level: We define the probability that the consolidated value at the end of the period will be between the lower band and the upper band. For example, if a confidence interval has a confidence level of 95%, this means that there is a 95% probability that the interval contains the true value of the parameter.

Field that will be used to calculate the Forecast

• Cost Field: Use this option to select the model's billing field. It will directly influence the values ​​that will be analyzed in these fields. For example, we can use the amortized cost or not, and it can even be a “custom field”.

Customize Forecasts by Adding Filters

• Filters: Use this option to select which values ​​should be disregarded in the forecast model, for example, purchases or Marketplace credits.

Add filters

To add a filter, the user can use any of the billing fields or custom fields existing in Lighthouse.

Overview of the Current Forecast tab:

• Monthly cost: Shows the cost of the selected competency, but the value is updated every day depending on the cost field that was selected in the settings. We can show the customer's billing value as the value from one day ago, as well as use any custom field that the user finds interesting, such as the value plus any tax.

We have information on when the cost value has been growing during the month, in this case we can see that it was 91.7% of the initial forecast and also in Expected Growth it shows an estimate of how much is left for the value to reach the initial forecast within the month.

• Initial Forecast: Shows the forecast value for the selected competency, the value is calculated taking into account all the values ​​from past months, calculates seasonality and organic growth, always taking into account the Events created, in this case a new project of USD 15,450.00 will have an adjustment in the calculation, it is important to note that this value is calculated once on the first day of the month and does not change.

We have information about the lower band and the upper band, they are calculated based on the information collected by the module, having direct interference from the model's confidence level, which can be customized by the user. As a default, we use 80%.

• Adjusted forecast: Shows the forecast value for the selected competency. The value is calculated taking into account only the current month and basically the calculation is made by dividing the amount spent to date by the days that have already passed and dividing the remaining value of the initial forecast by the remaining days of the month. It is important to note that this value is updated every day so that the user can monitor and take the necessary actions at the time.

We also have information on the deviation from the initial forecast, both in monetary value and in percentage.

Forecast Key Value: We can select to show the segmented value of that specific area or select all to bring the accumulated value of all values ​​together.

Event List: Shows the list of events created by the user in the selected competency.

Create event

Step 6: Click on Create Event to enable event registration options.

On this screen, the competence will always be for the month in which the user is analyzing and he must fill in the name of the event that will be created and the type of event as well as the cost related to the event.

Brief description of each event

• Seasonal: Creates a percentage in the selected competency, referring to seasonality, whose main objective is to provide the percentage that the client wants to take into consideration in the month. It is important to note that the seasonality percentage is calculated automatically, but it will be disregarded and only the percentage informed in this event will be taken into consideration.

• New Project: Creates a monetary value in the selected competency, referring to a new project that was identified by the user in the competency's month. The module will then take into account the value entered and add it to the calculation. It is important to note that in this case, the value is taken into account in that month, but will not have an impact on consecutive months, because the value of the new project will already be reflected in the customer's billing and makes the model more accurate.

• Organic growth: Creates a percentage in the selected competency, referring to organic growth, whose main objective is to bring the percentage that the client wants to take into account in the month. It is important to note that the organic growth percentage is calculated automatically, but it will be disregarded and only the percentage informed in this event will be taken into account.

• One-off event: Creates a monetary value in the selected competency, referring to a one-off event that was identified by the user in the month of the competency, such as a high-value purchase in the marketplace and that will not necessarily be made monthly or annually. It is important to note that in this case the value is taken into account in that month, but it will have an impact on consecutive months and makes the model more accurate.

• Others: Creates a monetary value in the selected competency, referring to some action that is not listed, but that was identified by the user in the month of the competency, so the module will take this value into account in the calculation base. It is important to note that in this case the value is taken into consideration in this month, but will not have an impact on consecutive months, because this value will already be reflected in the customer's billing and makes the model more accurate.

Step 7: Click on to navigate between the forecast module tabs.

Overview of the Forecast History tab:

In this tab, we can see the forecast history, where the user can select the date they would like to view on the graph.

• View in graph form

In the graph, we can see the confidence band, that is, the upper and lower bands represented by the blue area, showing information on how much of the model is correct in its forecasts during the period.

The blue line shows the monthly cost and the green line shows the adjusted forecast.

• Select the graph period

it is just select the date you want to view in the chart.

• View in table form

Selecting the table format that contains all the information, the chart will display in the new format.

• Select the Forescast Key Value

We can select to show the segmented value of that specific area or select all to bring the accumulated value of all values ​​together.

Step 8: Click on to navigate between the tabs of the forecast module.

Overview of the Next Forecasts tab:

In this tab, we can see future forecasts where the user can see on the graph how their cost will behave during the following months until the end of the year and when this period is close to the end, the forecast will always be extended with the following 3 months.

• View in graph form

In the graph, we can see the confidence band, that is, the upper and lower band represented by the blue area providing information on how much of the model is correct in its forecasts during the period and the blue line shows the monthly cost.

• View in the form of table

Selecting the table format that contains all the information, the chart will display in the new format.

• Select the Forescast Key Value

We can select to show the segmented value of that specific area or select all to bring the accumulated value of all values ​​together.